With what criteria should we assess the ECB’s choices since the arrival of Mario Draghi?
We believe that while being fair , we can make the following assessments of the ECB’s choices since late 2011: The very expansionary monetary policy conducted since 2013 has restored the solvency of all groups of economic agents; accordingly, it prevented the debt crisis from continuing, it prevented a break-up of the euro and it is currently preventing a recession; But this very expansionary monetary policy has not led to any improvement in euro-zone potential growth, neither by speeding up the accumulation of capital nor by fostering structural reforms; Lastly, the fact that it continues while the unemployment rate has returned to historically low levels is leading to multiple risks in the medium term: real estate bubble, weakening of banks in the euro zone, switch of savings into money , hardship for savers and future pensioners. We can therefore conclude that the ECB has had - probably because it has been subject to a constraint - a short-termist and defensive bias: a very serious crisis has been prevented but, as we have seen, there are many threats in the long term, and the very expansionary monetary policy has not helped restore euro-zone potential growth.