Report
Patrick Artus

With what criteria should we assess the ECB’s choices since the arrival of Mario Draghi?

We believe that while being fair , we can make the following assessments of the ECB’s choices since late 2011: The very expansionary monetary policy conducted since 2013 has restored the solvency of all groups of economic agents; accordingly, it prevented the debt crisis from continuing, it prevented a break-up of the euro and it is currently preventing a recession; But this very expansionary monetary policy has not led to any improvement in euro-zone potential growth, neither by speeding up the accumulation of capital nor by fostering structural reforms; Lastly, the fact that it continues while the unemployment rate has returned to historically low levels is leading to multiple risks in the medium term: real estate bubble, weakening of banks in the euro zone, switch of savings into money , hardship for savers and future pensioners. We can therefore conclude that the ECB has had - probably because it has been subject to a constraint - a short-termist and defensive bias: a very serious crisis has been prevented but, as we have seen, there are many threats in the long term, and the very expansionary monetary policy has not helped restore euro-zone potential growth.
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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