Worst-case scenario for life insurance
The worst-case scenario for European life insurance, which may well unfold, has the following components: Long-term interest rates that remain very low for a few years (thanks to expansionary monetary policies and excess global savings) and then rise rapidly as inflation returns in the medium term. This would keep the return on euro funds very low for several years, before giving rise to significant capital losses; Rapid rises in asset prices (equities, real estate) that drive savers into assets whose prices rise rapidly, while the return on life insurance remains low, followed by a bursting of bubbles that then exacerbates the capital losses.