Report
Patrick Artus

Would central banks decide not to react to an inflationary shock?

All central banks have now switched to a strategy of maintaining an expansionary monetary policy until full employment is restored (which can take different forms: "average inflation targeting", "yield curve control" , and "spread control" in the euro zone). But what would happen if inflation were to return and become markedly - and not only slightly - higher than the inflation target? In reality, central banks would have a strong incentive not to react to a rise in inflation. Such a lack of reaction would: Lead to even more negative real interest rates, and therefore facilitate rapid deleveraging; Boost share prices, which could be affected by the fall in earnings if the inflation is a result of a faster rise in wages; Obviously prevent a rise in interest payments on debt and therefore a deterioration in borrowers' financial situations.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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