Would it not be better to restructure Italy’s public debt?
Italy’s public debt ratio is very high and its potential growth is zero: the level of interest rates that Italy can bear , while remaining fiscally solvent, is therefore very low. This has three possible consequences: Either the ECB is forced to keep interest rates very low indefinitely to ensure Italy’s solvency, which is a dangerous monetary policy constraint; Or a debt crisis will be triggered in Italy if the ECB normalises its interest rates; Or the Italian government is forced to move to a far more restrictive fiscal policy to ensure its fiscal solvency and prevent a crisis should interest rates rise. All three of these possible developments are negative. There is a fourth possibility to circumvent them: a rapid restructuring of Italy’s public debt , reduc ing its size. This solution would of course be painful and dangerous, but would it be more so than the three other solutions?