Report
Patrick Artus

Would it not be better to restructure Italy’s public debt?

Italy’s public debt ratio is very high and its potential growth is zero: the level of interest rates that Italy can bear , while remaining fiscally solvent, is therefore very low. This has three possible consequences: Either the ECB is forced to keep interest rates very low indefinitely to ensure Italy’s solvency, which is a dangerous monetary policy constraint; Or a debt crisis will be triggered in Italy if the ECB normalises its interest rates; Or the Italian government is forced to move to a far more restrictive fiscal policy to ensure its fiscal solvency and prevent a crisis should interest rates rise. All three of these possible developments are negative. There is a fourth possibility to circumvent them: a rapid restructuring of Italy’s public debt , reduc ing its size. This solution would of course be painful and dangerous, but would it be more so than the three other solutions?
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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