Report
Patrick Artus

Would leaving the euro enable Italy to loosen its economic policy constraints?

Could Italy be driven to leave the euro (or the European Union) to regain freedom in terms of its economic policies? Accordingly, is an Italian exit from the euro a credible threat to the northern euro-zone countries? We do not think so : Regardless of the monetary policy pursued in Italy, Italy's long-term interest rates outside the euro would be much higher than in the euro; And, as a result, Italy's fiscal policy would be more constrained by interest rates than it is currently; In addition, Italy's overall demand policy could not become more expansionary; Italy had to eliminate its external deficit from 2010 by reducing its domestic demand since the deficit could no longer be financed, but an exit from the euro would make it even more difficult to finance an external deficit; Admittedly, the effects of exchange rate depreciation would be positive, but would they offset the higher interest rates and the more constrained fiscal and demand policies ?
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch