Complacency everywhere ? Our weekly cross-asset views
Market risk aversion and oil prices were up this week, but the moves appear low, when compared to the current geopolitical uncertainty and the lack of progress in US–Iran negotiations. Brent spot rose about 15% to nearly $105, while the MSCI World index dipped 0.8%. Implied and realized volatilities are roughly stable (and low!), with the VIX below 19. Furthermore, credit indices showed dispersion, with the € X-Over underperforming, but € HY spread tightening.Regarding the oil market, prices appear low when compared to the scale of supply losses, the significant instability stemming from the p...