6月ECB 理事会：今回はすんなり利下げも、次回以降は急がず

ECB June meeting: a cut, but no rush for further ones

As widely anticipated, the ECB has reduced its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate cut to 2%. The decision was ‘almost unanimous’ , with o ne governing council member dissenting (we suspect it was R. Holzmann ) . During the Q&A session, C. Lagarde refuted rumors of early departure and confirmed she intends to complete her term. The ECB is “well positioned” to navigate through uncertainties President Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is “w ell positioned” to address uncertainties , hinting t hat there is no rush for additional rate cuts . The dat...

RATES MONTHLY June 2025 - Long end: a phase or a drama?

In May, the DM bond market faced pressure on long-end yields, exacerbated by Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating and concerns over legislative approval of the 'Big Beautiful Bill.' Disappointing long-end UST auction results intensified this trend. In the EGBs, Germany’s increased investment plans shifted focus to EUR longs, especially after the Dutch parliament's pension model implicit approval. Recent rallies in JGBs alleviated pressure on EUR yields.  Looking ahead, we adjust our year-end forecast for the 10Y Bund to 2.60%, expecting less swap spread tightening due to non-resident real...