Telkom Indonesia (Buy, IDR 4,500, +76%)​​​​​ Q4 24 Quick Take: Buyback is positive but doesn’t fully offset weak fundamentals

Against weak comps, trends improved, but fundamentally the picture remains challenged. The announced share buyback (IDR 3trn, 1.2% of outstanding) is welcome but probably won’t on its own be sufficient to turn the picture around. PT Telkom has disappointed with headwinds outside of Java and in Indihome. We remain Buyers on valuation but there is little in the trends here to suggest an operational turnaround is close.

Indonesian Telcos – Final piece of the consolidation jigsaw? Proposed merger between XL and Smartfren. Our thoughts with implications for the telcos and the towers.

Indonesia's mobile industry is seemingly one step closer to its long-awaited final consolidation move. Axiata has entered into a non-binding MOU agreement with Sinar Mas for a proposed merger between XL Axiata and Smartfren.

Indonesian Telcos Q4 23 review: Strong execution from XL and Indosat; mobile fundamentals remain healthy

Despite Telkom being hit by a series of one-offs in Q4, industry mobile revenue and ARPU trends are still reflective of the benign competitive landscape. EBITDA also improved for both XL and Indosat, with capex intensity improved across the board. Moreover, recent news flow suggests that the XL and Smartfren merger is closer than before. Finally, we also raised our price target for Indosat to IDR12.5k from IDR11k as we layer on higher broadband revenue as it vies for share in the fixed industry.

Mobileye 1Q25: legacy business healing, SuperVision adoption slow, important win with Uber. Buy, $20 TP.

Google 1Q25: Compute is king and calls for a re-platforming

Google reported 1Q25 yesterday. See our updated perspective on cloud spending, capex and technology infrastructure.

Intel 1Q25: Weakening outlook near term; hints on the road ahead.