Abliva- FALCON To Fuel KL1333 (Sponsored Research, TP SEK 0.90 [1.50])
Following a positive 24-week interim readout from the P2 FALCON study in mid-July, in which both primary endpoints passed futility hurdles, Abliva will now expand the trial to 180 patients, over two waves, with the second wave to initiate this year. For the first time, the company has announced a potential date for an NDA submission – H227 – so we now assume a 2028 launch in our model. Our revised forecasts value the company at SEK 0.90/share [1.50], implying >4x upside. Our lower PT is driven by dilution from the recent fund raise, alongside our assumption for future rights issues to fund the KL1333 programme to approval, mitigated by a lower risk adjustment (from 30% to 50%) for KL1333 revenues.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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