Report
Pierre FerraguÊ

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q22

We publish this morning our comprehensive quarterly bible: 182 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings in 21 slides:
• In PCs: demand is now weakening across the board with the beginning of a deterioration in demand in high-end and in commercial; a CPU inventory correction at OEMs is now in full swing.
• Smartphone demand is deteriorating in the low-end and in China. Expectations remain at risk for smartphone semis.
• Mixed signals on Enterprise IT spending with weakness in PC and maybe servers in contrast to networking which remains very strong.
• Cloud capex continues to be strong, supporting the networking infrastructure build-out while compute spending lags.
• Memory demand is slowing down, which is driving the first wave of WFE spending cuts. We expect a material pull-back in WFE spending and now expect it to trough between $60 and $70bn.
• In Industrials and Autos semis, we see signs of a peak approaching, with inventories rebuilding and semi revenues as a percentage of end-product revenues multiple standard deviations above trend.
• There was a quality recovery in ride-sharing. Our thesis is playing out in full, with leaders (Uber/Grab) outperforming challengers (Lyft/GoTo).
This quarter’s Bible is the ideal compendium for you to take a step back and review latest developments.
Underlyings
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Advanced Micro Devices is a semiconductor company. The company primarily provides x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and personnel GPUs, and development services; server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company also licenses portions of its intellectual property portfolio. The company's segments are: Computing and Graphics, which consists of desktop, notebooks, commercial, and chipsets products; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom, which includes server processors, and embedded P\processors products.

Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Applied Materials Inc.

Applied Materials provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. The company's segments are: Semiconductor Systems, which develops, manufactures and sells a range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips; Applied Global Services, which provides integrated solutions to support equipment and fab performance and productivity; and Display and Adjacent Markets, which is comprised of products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, electronic tablets, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices.

Arista Networks Inc.

Arista Networks is engaged in providing cloud networking solutions, which consist of its Extensible Operating System (EOS), a set of network applications and its Ethernet switching and routing platforms. The programmability of EOS enable the company to create a set of software applications that address the requirements of cloud networking, including workflow automation, network visibility and analytics, and enable the company to integrate with third-party applications for virtualization, management, automation, orchestration and network services. EOS supports cloud and virtualization solutions, including VMware NSX, Microsoft System Center, OpenStack and other cloud management frameworks.

ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.

Broadcom Inc.

Broadcom, via its subsidiaries, is a designer, developer and supplier of a range of semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The company develops semiconductor devices with a focus on digital and mixed signal complementary metal oxide semiconductor based devices and analog III-V based products. The company provides products that are used in end products such as enterprise and data center networking, home connectivity, set-top boxes, broadband access, telecommunication equipment, smartphones and base stations, data center servers and storage systems, and factory automation. The company has three segments: semiconductor solutions, infrastructure software and intellectual property licensing.

Cisco Systems Inc.

Cisco Systems designs and sells a range of technologies that power the Internet. The company's business is organized into the following three geographic segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. The company's products and technologies are grouped into the following categories: Infrastructure Platforms; Applications; Security and Other Products. In addition to its product offerings, the company provides a range of service offerings, including technical support services and other services. The company delivers its technologies through software and services. The company's customers include businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments, and service providers.

Cree Inc.

Cree is a provider of bandgap semiconductor products for power and radio-frequency (RF) applications and lighting-class light emitting diode (LED) products. The company's products are used for applications such as transportation, power supplies, inverters, wireless systems, indoor and outdoor lighting, electronic signs and signals and video displays. The company operates in two segments: Wolfspeed, which consists of silicon carbide and gallium nitride (GaN) materials, power devices and RF devices based on silicon and bandgap semiconductor materials; and LED Products, which consists of LED chips and LED components. The company's LED chip products include blue and green LED chips based on GaN and related materials.

GRABTAXI HOLDINGS PTE LTD

INFICON Holding AG

INFICON Holding provides world-class instruments for gas analysis, measurement and control and its products are essential for gas leak detection in air conditioning, refrigeration, and automotive manufacturing. They are vital to equipment manufacturer and end-users in the complex fabrication of semiconductors and thin film coatings for optics, flat panel displays, solar cells and industrial vacuum coating applications. Co. also leverages its expertise in vacuum technology to provide unique, toxic chemical analysis products for emergency response, security, and environmental monitoring.

INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG

Infineon Technologies is a semiconductor manufacturing company. The Automotive segment designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors for use in automotive applications. The Industrial Power Control segment designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors for the generation, transmission and economy in the use of electrical energy. The Power Management & Multimarket segment designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors for power supplies, mobile devices and mobile phone network infrastructures. The Chip Card & Security segment designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductor-based security products for card applications and networked systems.

Intel Corporation

Intel is a data-centric company. The company's operating segments are: Data Center Group, which develops platforms for compute, storage, and network functions; Internet of Things Group, which facilitates its customers creating, storing, and processing data; Mobileye, which provides assistance and automation solutions; Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which provides memory and storage products based on Intel? Optane? technology and Intel? 3D NAND technology; Programmable Solutions Group, which provides programmable semiconductors; and Client Computing Group, which connects people to data, allowing each person to focus, create, and engage in ways that unlock their individual potential.

Micron Technology Inc.

Micron Technology provides memory and storage solutions. The company's portfolio of memory and storage technologies include Dynamic Random Access Memory, Not And, 3D XPoint? memory, and Not Or. The company's segments are: Compute and Networking Business, which includes memory products sold into client, cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets; Mobile Business, which includes memory products sold into smartphone and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business, which includes Solid-State Drives and component-level solutions sold into enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; and Embedded Business, which includes memory and storage products.

Nokia Oyj

Nokia is an Internet and communications technology company based in Finland. Co.'s operations are focused on three businesses: network infrastructure software, hardware and services, which Co. offers through Networks; location intelligence, which Co. provides through HERE; and advanced technology development and licensing, which Co. pursues through Technologies. Co. maintains a global presence with operations and Researh & Development facilities located in Europe, North America and Asia, and sales in approximately 130 countries. Co. has an installed base of around 600 customers worldwide and these operators serve over 4 billion subscribers.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.

Palo Alto Networks Inc.

Palo Alto Networks provides a platform that allows enterprises, service providers, and government entities to secure their organizations. The company's platform uses a traffic classification engine that identifies network traffic by application, user, and content and provides security across the network, endpoint, and cloud. The company's product, subscription, and support offerings include: firewall appliances and software; and Panorama, which is a centralized security management solution for global control of various firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network as well as in their instances in public or private cloud environments as a virtual appliance or a physical appliance.

SoftBank Group Corp.

SoftBank Group is a holding company. Domestic Telecommunications business provides mobile communication services, mobile devices, broadband services to retail customers, and telecom services to corporate customers in Japan. Sprint business provides mobile communication services and fixed-line telecommunication services in the U.S. Yahoo Japan business operates Internet-based advertising and e-commerce business. Distribution business distributes mobile devices overseas, and sells software and mobile device accessories in Japan. ARM business designs microprocessor intellectual property and related technology. SoftBank Vision Fund & Delta Fund business is engaged in the investment activities.

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson Class B

Ericsson provides communications technology and services. Co.'s services, software and infrastructure – especially in mobility, broadband and the cloud – enable the telecom industry and other sectors to do business, increase efficiency, improve the user experience and capture new opportunities. Co. has more than 110,000 professionals and customers in more than 180 countries. Co. provides support for networks with more than 2.5 billion subscribers. Co.'s core business areas are called Radio, Core and Transmission and Telecom Services. Co. divides its operations into three business segments: Networks, Global Services and Support Solutions.

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

Uber Technologies Inc.

Uber Technologies provides ride hailing services. The company develops application for road transportation, navigation, ride sharing, and payment processing solutions. The company serves customers in the United States and Canada, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific markets, excluding its discontinued China operations.

UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC

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Pierre FerraguÊ

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