New Street Research - Airtel Africa Plc (AIRTELAF) ... GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?

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New Street Research

Chris Hoare

EUR 9281.00 For Business Accounts Only

GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?

For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.

16/08/2023 1 EN

Underlyings

Airtel Africa Plc

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Bharti Airtel

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China Unicom

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True Corp. Public Co. Ltd.

True Corporation Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based integrated communication solution provider. The Company and its subsidiaries categorize the business into three segments: online segment, which is the provision and installation of fixed line services including public telephones and related value-added services, data services, multimedia services, broadband services and Internet services; wireless segment, which is the provision of cellular telephone services, resale of 3G services using high-speed packet access (HSPA) technologies, network equipment rental, mobile services and sales of handsets and accessories, and pay television (Pay-TV) segment, which is the provision of pay television services both via cables and satellite platforms, rental and trading of related equipment and other related services to the pay television business, advertising sale and agency.

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TH0375010Z06 Stock Exchange of Thailand Thailand

Vodafone Idea Ltd

Idea Cellular provides Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) based mobile services and related telephony services to individuals and businesses in India. The company operates through three segments: Mobility Services, which provides GSM based mobile and related telephony services; International Long Distance (ILD), which provides international long distance services; and Passive Infrastructure, which provides passive infrastructure services. Co. offers 2G and 3G services that comprise roaming arrangements; ILD and other services; and a range of mobile broadband devices, including dongles and 3G smartphones that provide 3G applications and data services.

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INE669E01016 National Stock Exchange of India India

Xl Axiata Tbk Pt

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Provider

New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
Global healthcare thematic research

We provide debt research on:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

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Analysts

Chris Hoare

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Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.

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GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line but slower EBITDA; positive message on HoldCo cash

REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - May 2024

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - 1Q24: Net Profit Skyrockets (+168% yoy) With Better Efficiency In Marketing Expenses

Further thoughts on a potential USM acquisition

NSR Policy Quick Hit: ACP Amendment to FAA Fails to Launch, but a New Path Emerges

NSR Policy: How will Government Review a TMUS/VZ Purchase of US Cellular?

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