Report
Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 3Q24 – Semicap: 2025 expectations are too high

Today, we are publishing the Semicap section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Cloud Infrastructure, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, and Foundry.
Semicap equipment revenues were up 11% QoQ with non-Chinese spending recovering and Chinese spending remaining strong. Vendors now expect Chinese spending to decline significantly next year but are bullish on overall WFE spending growth next year driven by memory and leading-edge logic. We see downside to 2025 growth expectations as declining Chinese and western trailing edge spend will largely offset growth elsewhere.
Underlyings
Applied Materials Inc.

Applied Materials provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. The company's segments are: Semiconductor Systems, which develops, manufactures and sells a range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips; Applied Global Services, which provides integrated solutions to support equipment and fab performance and productivity; and Display and Adjacent Markets, which is comprised of products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, electronic tablets, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices.

ASML Holding N.V.

ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.

KLA Corporation

KLA is a supplier of process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries. The company provides process control and process-enabling solutions for manufacturing and testing wafers and reticles, integrated circuits, packaging, light emitting diodes, power devices, compound semiconductor devices, microelectromechanical systems, data storage, printed circuit boards (PCBs), and flat and flexible panel displays, as well as general materials research. The company has four reportable segments which include Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; PCB, Display and Component Inspection; and Other.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

Tokyo Electron Ltd.

Tokyo Electron is a supplier of semiconductor production equipment ("SPE") and flat panel display ("FPD") selling through global network that spans Japan, the U.S., Europe and Asia. Co.'s principal products are coater/developers, plasma etch systems, thermal processing systems, single wafer deposition systems, cleaning systems (auto wet station, single wafer cleaning system, pre-clean system and scrubber system), wafer prober, FPD coater/developers and FPD plasma etch/ash systems. In addition, Co., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the provision of transportation services, insurance services, as well as the support services for Co.'s photovoltaic cell ("PV") production equipment.

Provider
New Street Research
New Street Research

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Analysts
Pierre FerraguÊ

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