Deep dive into Chinese Semicap: How much of a headwind for Western players?

Chinese WFE spending quadrupled in five years to $41bn, driven by aggressive local deployments, while domestic vendors rapidly gained traction, capturing 13% of local spending already, mostly in deposition, etch, and CMP. In this deep dive, we assess the competitiveness of key Chinese vendors, including Naura, AMEC, and SiCarrier. We estimate first the pace (and the scope) at (and on) which they could close the gap with their western peers. On that basis we estimate the share they can gain over time, which depends firstly on the evolution of export restrictions, as the latter limit the comp...

PSA Technology / IC Materials: Implications for IC Materials Sector as DC Capex Forecasts Rise

We consider IC material plays as laggard beneficiaries to the rising spend on Data Centres.

Director's Cut: More Sanguine on Near-Term Market Outlook

Microsoft vs. OpenAI: Implications for investors?

Press reports about ongoing negotiations between Microsoft and OpenAI have intensified in recent weeks. How much does that matter for investors in Microsoft? In this note, we lay out our understanding of the current agreement, outline what is publicly reported about ongoing negotiations, and we provide our perspective on the situation.

SATS, Carr, and the Art of the No Deal…Yet

SATS just filed a new 8-K saying it will make the interest payments on Monday, avoiding a Chapter 11 filing. Our New Street colleagues have published a note today with their perspective. In this note we describe the filing and its implications.

Supreme Court Upholds USF Framework but Reform Still Ahead

Today, the Supreme Court issued its opinion in the case challenging the legality of Universal Service Fund (USF) framework. As we had predicted, the Court upheld the current framework. In this note we analyze the implications of the decision for the USF reform efforts ahead in the Congress and FCC.