Report
Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan
EUR 4773.50 For Business Accounts Only

EU Pharma - 2024 Year Ahead (28 pgs)

For EU Pharma, 2024 is likely to be characterised by EPS revisions, a handful of new launches & sluggish EPS growth for a number of names. The relative lack of pipeline catalysts makes forecasting sales and EPS much more important than for 2023. We identify 4 key issues to watch for: 1) Medicaid AMP cap removal, 2) Higher tax costs, 3) Higher debt costs & 4) a handful of very specific company issues that could make a material difference to performance (Novo: Wegovy supply, GSK: litigation, SAN: tolebrutinib P3). Our top pick is Novo, we upgrade Sanofi to BUY & see more catalysts than the market perceives & rate Roche a SELL due to just 2% EPS growth. We also remain bearish on DIM FP but bullish on EVT.
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Underlyings
AstraZeneca PLC

AstraZeneca is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates as a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing its pipeline of small molecule and biologic prescription medicines, including targeted business development through collaboration, in-licensing and acquisitions. Co. is focused on three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, and Respiratory. Co. is also selectively active in autoimmunity, infection and neuroscience. In addition, Co. works across small molecules, oligonucleotides and other drug platforms, as well as biologic medicines.

GlaxoSmithKline plc

GlaxoSmithKline is a global healthcare company. Co.'s segments include: Pharmaceuticals; Vaccines; and Consumer Healthcare. The Pharmaceuticals segment is focused on developing new medicines in respiratory, HIV, oncology and immuno-inflammation, with discovery research exploring these and other areas. The Vaccines segment has a portfolio and pipeline of vaccines to help protect people throughout life. Co. delivers vaccines to people living in over 160 countries. The Consumer Healthcare segment develops and markets consumer-preferred brands in oral health, pain relief, respiratory, nutrition/gastro-intestinal and skin health.

Novartis AG

Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.

Sanofi

Sanofi is an integrated, global healthcare company focused on patient needs and engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of healthcare products. Two segments make up Co.'s business: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Pharmaceuticals segment covers research, development, production and marketing of medicines, consisting of flagship products, plus a broad range of prescription medicines, generic medicines, and consumer health products. The Vaccines segment includes research, development, production and marketing of vaccines in five areas: pediatric vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines.

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Analysts
Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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