New Street Research - Bharti Airtel (532454) Indian Mobile Q1 FY24 review: Outperformance by Bharti

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New Street Research

Chris Hoare

EUR 9281.00 For Business Accounts Only

Indian Mobile Q1 FY24 review: Outperformance by Bharti

India’s telecom industry maintained a healthy growth in Q1, with Bharti outperforming on mobile service revenue growth, supported by a better ARPU trend relative to peers. Whilst Jio posted better net additions, its ARPU trend was softer. The impact from the Jio Bharat (low priced smartphone and a cheaper plan) which was introduced in July remains to be seen, however we estimated the impact to be minimal to Bharti but material to VIL given its higher mix of featurephone users

07/09/2023 1 EN

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Bharti Airtel

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Chris Hoare

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India’s telecom industry continue to grow in the HSD, with Bharti and Jio improving at the expense of VIL. Industry ARPU tracked MSD again even without any meaningful tariff hikes; we expect increases to be put through in 2H CY24 though that has largely been priced in. EBITDA continue to trend ahead of topline, with YoY margins improvement across the board. Earlier last month, the government also approved the auction for 10,523 MHz of spectrum which starts from INR 963bn (USD 11.6bn). However, we expect much of this spectrum to go unsold.

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Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,500, +34%) Marginal margin continuing to drive upside. Buy, pt to INR 1,500 (from INR 1,400)

Following a very strong H2 2023, Bharti has retraced nearly INR 100/share. We remain bullish and would see the sell-down as a buying opportunity. Consensus forecasts continue to look too low to us; in this note we focus on the consumer margin, which we think is likely to surprise to the upside.

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Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,400, +26%) Q3 FY24 Quick Take: In-line, with domestic mobile trends ahead of peers again

Excluding the Naira devaluation impact, Bharti Airtel reported in-line results for its Indian businesses, with sustained margin expansion again. Indian mobile performance remained strong, with ARPU and revenue growth ahead of peers ahead. Trends also remained strong for Home Services, with Digital TV seeing a nice acceleration post the inflection last quarter.

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Indian Mobile Q1 FY24 review: Outperformance by Bharti

Indian Mobile Q3 FY24 review: Still tracking well even without tariff hikes

Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,500, +34%) Marginal margin continuing to drive upside. Buy, pt to INR 1,500 (from INR 1,400)

Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,400, +26%) Q3 FY24 Quick Take: In-line, with domestic mobile trends ahead of peers again

Further thoughts on a potential USM acquisition

NSR Policy Quick Hit: ACP Amendment to FAA Fails to Launch, but a New Path Emerges

NSR Policy: How will Government Review a TMUS/VZ Purchase of US Cellular?

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