Indian Telcos Q3 FY25 review: Sustained margin expansion from July’s price increase

Trends continued to benefit from last July’s tariff hike with sustained margin expansion across all three operators. Capex intensity is expected to moderate further for Bharti as network build decelerates, whereas VIL would accelerate its spending on the back of its 5G launch in March. India’s FWA development remains promising, with potential positive implications on EM Telcos

EM FWA-Watch S-Curve continuing to accelerate in India, with implications for EM generally

Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.

Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may voluntarily give telcos $12bn of relief on AGR liabilities would be a thesis-changing event. If it happens it would be probably the biggest ever positive regulatory decisio

Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.

Intel 1Q25: Weakening outlook near term; hints on the road ahead.

CHTR 1Q25 Quick Take: Net adds a little soft; EBITDA beat

Net adds missed estimates, but the miss was less severe than some might have feared following Comcast’s results. Importantly, adds in existing markets improved year-over-year. EBITDA growth was 3.5% after adjusting for a one-time benefit. This was well ahead of expectations. Estimates for EBITDA and FCF will likely increase for the year. Repurchases are back, and the Company seemed to reaffirm a leverage target of 4.25x. Repurchase estimates should increase too with higher EBITDA and FCF.

NSR Policy Implications of Hegseth’s Woes on Key Spectrum Battle

Secretary of Defense Hegseth continues to struggle in controlling the narrative about his leadership, leading to reports that the White House is looking for a replacement (which the White House denies.) In this note we analyze the implications of those struggles for the key spectrum battle involving the Department of Defense (DoD) and the wireless industry.