SMA Market Deep-Dive- Roche Set to Win (16 pages)
Our deep-dive on the SMA market following the recent Novartis setbacks & updated clinical trial readouts highlight many interesting new conclusions. We show that Evrysdi (ROG) is now set to be the biggest drug in the $5.5bn SMA market, closely followed by Spinraza (BIIB). The market is set to grow from $3.2bn to $5.3bn by 2025 with 100% of that growth going to Roche, on our numbers. Following new work and the construction of our SMA market model, we increase our Evrysdi forecasts by $1.3bn in 2025, driving a 4% Roche EBIT upgrade. We expect Zolgensma to decline to 2025.Biogen is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and delivering therapies for people living with neurological and neurodegenerative diseases as well as related therapeutic adjacencies. The company's main growth areas include multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology; Alzheimer's disease and dementia; neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; movement disorders, including Parkinson's disease; and ophthalmology. The company's marketed products include TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, VUMERITY and FAMPYRA for the treatment of MS, SPINRAZA for the treatment of SMA and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis.
Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.
Roche Holding is a healthcare company. Co. operates in two Divisions, Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division is comprised of two business segments Roche Pharmaceuticals and Chugai. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division provides therapies including Cotellic, in combination with Zelboraf for advanced melanoma, and Alecensa for a specific type of lung cancer. Co.'s diagnostics division consists of four business areas: Diabetes Care, Molecular Diagnostics, Professional Diagnostics and Tissue Diagnostics. Co.'s diagnostics division provides in vitro diagnostic tests, used by healthcare providers to screen, diagnose and monitor therapies.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
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