COVID-19 - Lockdowns Look Inevitable (11 pgs)
We have calculated the potential peak hospitalisations in the Autumn for major nations based on current vaccination rates, stratified by age & relative risk of hospitalisation. Our analysis shows the US could potentially have more hospitalisations in Q421/Q122 than was seen at the peak of the last wave. We show that the UK could put the pandemic behind it by Q4 and the 4 week delay to reopening was wise. The R0 in an open economy is now estimated at ‘6’ requiring an 85% vaccination rate for herd immunity, yet the US & Israel are struggling to get much beyond 60%. Hospital beds available for COVID will be lower due to resurgent flu. Our sobering analysis shows COVID is set to drive material disruptions in Q421 & into 2022.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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