Intron Health - DiaSorin - INITIATION - COVID Durability & Luminex Upside (BUY, TP EUR200, 46 pgs)
We INITIATE with a BUY on DiaSorin driven by two analyses; 1) The durability of COVID sales is longer than most anticipate & 2) Luminex is ~30% accretive by 2024 which is not yet in numbers. Despite an anticipated decline in COVID sales from 2022, we forecast 7% CAGR EBITDA growth 2021-25 and are 21% above consensus 2022 EBITDA. Our €200 PT offers 25% upside. We do not include sales synergies from Luminex but believe they could be significant whilst cost synergies could be higher. We anticipate routine testing, which accounted for c.70% of sales in 2020 but declined due to COVID, to return to strong growth with elective surgery data as a proxy. Net debt falls to 1x EBITDA by 2023 so M&A could offer further upside. The ABT profit warning has limited read-across to DiaSorin.To get access to the full initiation, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
Diasorin is engaged in the market for in vitro diagnostics. Co. is developing, producing and commercializing diagnostic tests that are designed for hospital and private testing laboratories for use in different clinical areas in the market of immunodiagnostics and molecular diagnostics. In the immunodiagnostics market segment, Co. develops, produces and markets immunoreagent kits based on three different detection techniques. In the molecular diagnostics segment, Co. supplies end laboratories with an automated solution to perform the three steps required for the final diagnostic result.
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