Elisa (Neutral, TP: €38, -7%) Q1 26: Weak SR trends the issue again
Elisa has reported another set of disappointing numbers, with weak SR trends and MSR is actually negative y/y. EBITDA is in-line with consensus and guidance has been reiterated, but the guidance range is quite large, and we think investors might now worry about EBITDA risk given the SR outlook (mobile ARPU is weak) – albeit there is a large cost out program providing a strong support (c5%). Elisa has gone from being a premium-rated defensive bellwether to perennial downgrade concern. We do not see these issues going away soon, but hard to see too much downside on a DCF (we are already a bit below 24-27 guidance), hence the Neutral rating.
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