New Street Research - Elisa (ELISA) Elisa (Neutral, TP: €56, +2%) Q1 23: In-line vs consensus, but B2C EBITDA growth probably turned negative - inc call feedback

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New Street Research

Russell Waller

EUR 9179.00 For Business Accounts Only

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €56, +2%) Q1 23: In-line vs consensus, but B2C EBITDA growth probably turned negative - inc call feedback

The concern at Elisa for the past year or so has been operational leverage (the lag between revenue growth and EBITDA growth). This quarter is no different.

20/04/2023 1 EN

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Elisa

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New Street Research

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Russell Waller

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Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +27%) Q1 24: EBITDA growth better than SR growth, but B2B EBITDA still negative y/y

Elisa reported good results, with stable service revenue growth (+3% YoY) but importantly an acceleration in clean EBITDA (to +6% y/y from +4% y/y in Q4). EBITDA growth was better than SR growth for the first time since Q3 2021. This is what the market wanted to see, as concerns have been around operational leverage;

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Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +26%) Q4 23: B2B performance remains a concern

Elisa results continue to be characterised by a good B2C performance but a poor B2B performance (Revenue -1.4% y/y, EBITDA -3.4% y/y) . The bull case for the B2B division is that is that there are upfront losses and investments that will reverse, and when that happens, EBITDA growth will become positive.

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Elisa (Neutral, TP: €53, +24%) Q3 23: Miss vs consensus, B2B EBITDA a concern

Growth has slowed slightly, and numbers have missed slightly. For a stock that trades at a 32% premium to the sector on EV/FCF that is not a good look. The miss and slowdown is small, but that is not the point, especially when there are also concerns around B2B EBITDA and International Digital Service growth outlook (growth outlook downgraded this quarter).

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Elisa (Neutral, TP: €56, +2%) Q1 23: In-line vs consensus, but B2C EBITDA growth probably turned negative - inc call feedback

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +27%) Q1 24: EBITDA growth better than SR growth, but B2B EBITDA still negative y/y

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +26%) Q4 23: B2B performance remains a concern

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €53, +24%) Q3 23: Miss vs consensus, B2B EBITDA a concern

Bible 1Q24 – Foundries: leading-edge strong; Trailing-edge correction playing out.

VEON (Buy, TP: $40, +55%) Thoughts after the call

Reddit (RDDT, Neutral, $54 target) Data licensing tracking our base case after OpenAI deal

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