Report
Dominic Rose ...
  • Naresh Chouhan
EUR 4645.50 For Business Accounts Only

GSK - 30% EBIT Decline 2027-29

Our analysis of the impact of IRA on the 6 EU Pharma names shows GSK is most exposed this decade & we cut to HOLD. Shingrix & Trelegy US price cuts may account for a 7% EBIT hit in 2028. This happens at the same time as the ViiV patent losses leading to ~1/3 of group EBIT being lost 2027-29. We argue that GSK should aggressively cut costs today to boost M&A firepower to try to plug the hole. In the absence of this, we see limited ability to minimise the end of decade earnings losses. We also see risks to Shingrix from upcoming competition & show that GSK is fairly valued here.
Underlying
GlaxoSmithKline plc

GlaxoSmithKline is a global healthcare company. Co.'s segments include: Pharmaceuticals; Vaccines; and Consumer Healthcare. The Pharmaceuticals segment is focused on developing new medicines in respiratory, HIV, oncology and immuno-inflammation, with discovery research exploring these and other areas. The Vaccines segment has a portfolio and pipeline of vaccines to help protect people throughout life. Co. delivers vaccines to people living in over 160 countries. The Consumer Healthcare segment develops and markets consumer-preferred brands in oral health, pain relief, respiratory, nutrition/gastro-intestinal and skin health.

Provider
New Street Research
New Street Research

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Analysts
Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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