AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neutral, MXN55, +9%) Mexican FTTH/Cable - Megacable to Neutral on Valuation, AMX top pick into Investor Day

The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.

Mexican Cable/FTTH – Capex down, promotions lifting; Buy MEGA; TV/TPLAY (HY)

Following TotalPlay and Televisa results at the end of last week, and Megacable the week prior, we highlight key positive conclusions from the Mexican reporting season: 1/ Capex is coming down across the board in Mexico in FY 24 driving an uplift in OpFCF margin for all players, 2/ Lower promotional intensity through YE is helping ARPUs and would be supportive if it holds.

MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind stars; Earnings call feedback

Megacable reported good Q4s last night with strong broadband adds, revenue growth accelerating (to 14% y/y on core cable/FTTH) and perhaps most supportively EBITDA on core returning to 12% growth on new build operational leverage; EBITDA was flat only a couple of quarters go and the guide is for margin expansion in FY 24 and beyond (ahead of us and the market).

Microsoft Build Conference. What did we learn?

Microsoft hosted the annual ‘Build’ conference from May 21st through the 23rd. In this note we share selected thoughts on some of the announcements.

KLA, LAM, AMAT, ASML, TEL model updates post 1Q24

Odido (T-Mobile NL) Q1 24: B2C mobile ARPU now only +0.7% y/y - front book pricing fix needed

Odido has reported a good set of Q1 24 results, but APRU trends have deteriorated again, and are now only +0.7% y/y in B2C mobile, suggesting that the planned offensive on front book prices, promised at the Q4 results, can not come soon enough.