Intron Health - COVID - 19 - US to Enter Winter Danger Zone (12pgs)
Whilst there is widely held belief that the worst of COVID is behind us, today, US hospitalisations are at 70% of the peak in January. Worse still, we identify a cocktail of 5 factors that could create a ‘Winter Danger Zone’ & take hospitalisations ~60% above the level we saw in January, resulting in social restrictions. Our modelling accounts for vaccination rates by age, hospitalisation risk by age & higher risk from Delta. We do not account for waning immunity. We show early signs that in the worst hit regions, individuals appear to be moderating their movements. We show this situation is specific to the US.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ).
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