EUR 4653.00 For Business Accounts Only

Intron Health - INITIATION: Hansa Biopharma - A Rare Gem (TP SEK385, 50% Upside)

Hansa is a Swedish rare disease biotech whose lead asset,
Idefirix, recently received a positive CHMP opinion for use in
highly sensitised kidney transplant patients. Idefirix’s highly
elegant & effective profile makes it a pipeline & a platform
technology in itself. Hansa’s recent successes have made it
big enough to be within most investors’ investment universe
and we see 50% upside. There are multiple S-T catalysts,
numerous sources of upside to our valuation, commercialisation
could be aided by kidney transplant guideline updates
& mgmt have expertise in shifting treatment paradigms. Bone
marrow transplant indication could add SEK32/share to cons.
Idefirix In Kidney Transplant Alone Accounts for Current Mkt Cap
An EU7 launch in Q4 & the ongoing pivotal US trial could generate peak
sales of $500m. We expect a slow sales ramp but believe updated clinical
guidelines would materially accelerate revenues above our forecasts.
Material Upside from Future Gene Therapy Deals
We estimate the Sarepta deal is worth SEK37/share. There are 300 gene
therapies in development & 20 already FDA-approved, with many likely
to experience viral vector antibody issues, so this is a large opportunity.
Many Sources of Upside and Multiple Near-Term Catalysts
We do not include: 1) New gene therapy deals 2) Out-licensing of Idefirix
in ROW 3) Any sales from the pipeline. We see multiple catalysts
including; 1) Guideline updates, 2) Anti-GBM P2 in 3Q, 3) Oct 29th CMD.
Hansa Should be Profitable by 2023 and Have Enough Cash
The recent $120m equity raise should see Hansa through to cashflow
positive and it should be able to raise debt to fund the US launch. Clinical
trials could be accelerated and expanded given the new cash injection.
SOTP Valuation Implies 50% Upside with Potential for More
EU & US kidney transplant indication is worth SEK257/share & there is
S-T upside from gene therapy deals & ROW kidney out-licensing deals.

For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ).