Intron Health - Roche - Most Defensive Pharma (BUY, TP CHF 370 [350], 16 pgs)
Using our EU Pharma investment framework published on Monday, we show that Roche is the most defensive name with limited downside risk to 2020 earnings. We show the majority of key franchises should be largely unaffected and there could be some upside from a more muted biosimilar impact. We do expect Tecentriq to be impacted due to less lung cancer patient starts and potential shortening of treatment. We also expect Satrilizumab, Risdiplam & Alecensa launches to be affected. Despite this, we see a high likelihood of guidance being met and we forecast 4% CER sales & EPS growth this year. PT increased to CHF370 to reflect its safe haven status.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ).
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