Intron Health - Lonza: Upside Aplenty – PT up to CHF580
Our LBPN deep-dive leads us to believe there is considerable upside from new modalities, US & EU onshoring trends, the IBEX platform & the newly signed Moderna alliance. We increase our 2025 group sales forecasts by 13% and EBITDA forecasts by 15%. We are now 10% above consensus EBITDA in 2022 and 8% higher on sales. We do not include the Moderna COVID vaccine in our forecasts but show that it could add ~40% to 2021 EBIT (although adds 2-3% to company NPV). A number of imminent catalysts could boost the shares: LSI spin decision is due any day, MRNA COVID vaccine P2 data in Q320 & the new CEO starts in November. We see 15% upside with scope for material upgrades from a new strategy.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
Lonza supplies services and products that range from active pharmaceutical ingredients and stem-cell therapies to drinking water sanitizers, from vitamin B compounds and organic personal care ingredients to agricultural products, and from industrial preservatives to microbial control solutions. Co. operates in two segments: Lonza Pharma & Biotech, which clusters all of Co.'s offerings for pharmaceutical markets, focuses on providing custom development, custom manufacturing, cell therapy, viral therapeutics and bioscience solutions; and Lonza Specialty Ingredients, which includes offerings in its consumer care, agro ingredients, industrial solutions, wood protection and water treatment.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
- US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
- Global Emerging Market Telecoms
- Japan Telecoms
- Asian Internet
- Pan European Healthcare
- Global healthcare thematic research
We provide debt research on:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
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