Lonza - UPGRADE to Hold (TP CHF465, 12 pgs)
With Lonza shares having fallen 18% since July 31st & now closer to reflecting the issues we highlighted in our d/grade note, we upgrade Lonza to Hold. Whilst we are cognisant of further downside risks to consensus, we believe the shares largely reflect this & anticipate the CMD could be a clearing event with consensus falling to reflect our concerns. We see downside risks to revenues in mRNA, Nutraceuticals and Cell & Gene into 2024 and beyond. However, our biggest concern remains on the margin with new capacity in mRNA & the new EDS site both being underutilised. Moreover, with possible worsening mix from lower mRNA sales and Cell & Gene becoming loss-making, we do not view 2024 margin guidance as achievable. Our CHF465 PT implies 15x our 2025 EBITDA.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
Lonza supplies services and products that range from active pharmaceutical ingredients and stem-cell therapies to drinking water sanitizers, from vitamin B compounds and organic personal care ingredients to agricultural products, and from industrial preservatives to microbial control solutions. Co. operates in two segments: Lonza Pharma & Biotech, which clusters all of Co.'s offerings for pharmaceutical markets, focuses on providing custom development, custom manufacturing, cell therapy, viral therapeutics and bioscience solutions; and Lonza Specialty Ingredients, which includes offerings in its consumer care, agro ingredients, industrial solutions, wood protection and water treatment.
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- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
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- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
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