New Street Research - Lonza Group AG (LONN) Lonza - Upside from Market Disruption (BUY, TP CHF610 [500], 13 pgs)

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New Street Research

Dominic Rose ...

Naresh Chouhan

EUR 4670.50 For Business Accounts Only

Lonza - Upside from Market Disruption (BUY, TP CHF610 [500], 13 pgs)

New analysis of the upcoming disruptions to the biologic CDMO market lead us to upgrade our 2027 Lonza revenues by 10% & our PT to CHF610 (28% upside). We show that recent disruptions to Wuxi & Catalent’s ability to supply the market could mean that 20% of global market CDMO share could be up for grabs. We also show that Lonza inventories have normalised, suggesting a return to normal ordering in 2024. Our AI-derived biologic demand model shows that volume growth should be 12% in 2024 & 2025 and ~10% CAGR to 2028. Given the shrinking competition, we believe Lonza are well placed to benefit. A new CEO could reignite investor interest.
For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )

19/03/2024 1 EN

Underlying

Lonza Group AG

Lonza supplies services and products that range from active pharmaceutical ingredients and stem-cell therapies to drinking water sanitizers, from vitamin B compounds and organic personal care ingredients to agricultural products, and from industrial preservatives to microbial control solutions. Co. operates in two segments: Lonza Pharma & Biotech, which clusters all of Co.'s offerings for pharmaceutical markets, focuses on providing custom development, custom manufacturing, cell therapy, viral therapeutics and bioscience solutions; and Lonza Specialty Ingredients, which includes offerings in its consumer care, agro ingredients, industrial solutions, wood protection and water treatment.

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CH0013841017 Six Swiss Exchange Switzerland

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Analysts

Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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Lonza - Upside from Market Disruption (BUY, TP CHF610 [500], 13 pgs)

Lonza Prices EUR 1 Billion Straight Bond with a 3.875% Coupon

Lonza : Benefiting from the ongoing outsourcing trend in the healthcare industry

GOTO 1Q24 Results: Reinvest Profit to Drive Growth

Odido Q4 23: Good SR and EBITDA growth; possible frontbook fix on the cards?

NSR Policy: The Interconnections of ACP, Spectrum, Title II, and the Second Circuit ruling

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