New Street Research - MILLICOM (TIGO) Millicom (Buy, TP: $21, +18%) Q1 23: Model update: EBITDA miss, Colombian spectrum liabilities...though Capex cuts support EFCF

Report

New Street Research

David Lopes ...

Soomit Datta

EUR 9599.00 For Business Accounts Only

Millicom (Buy, TP: $21, +18%) Q1 23: Model update: EBITDA miss, Colombian spectrum liabilities...though Capex cuts support EFCF

Millicom reported Q1s today. Service revenue was broadly in-line though EBITDA missed in part due to restructuring charges ($15m) and non-cash stock compensation ($5-6m) but stripping this out still missed by 3%.

28/04/2023 1 EN

Underlying

MILLICOM

See profile

Provider

New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
Global healthcare thematic research

We provide debt research on:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

See profile

Analysts

David Lopes

Soomit Datta

Other Reports on these Companies

New Street Research

TIGO (Buy, TP: $34, +29%) Millicom - Q3 24: Solid quarter; raised EFCF guidance

Millicom has reported a solid set of results with improving service revenue trends, a nice reversal in Home Broadband nets adds (driven by Colombia) and strong EFCF this quarter. The company has lifted its FY24 guidance for EFCF to ~$650m from “more than $600m previously” – though consensus is close to this level for FY24.

EUR 9599.00

November 7, 2024 November 7, 2024 1 EN

New Street Research

Millicom (Buy, TP: $30, +17%) Multiple M&A’s: Millicom (BUY) in Colombia/Costa Rica – synergies >$1 billion / Q2 24 highlights

A series of transactions, involving four separate parties, have been proposed by Millicom (and with a MOU with Telefonica) which could take the patchy Colombian telco market to an effective duopoly, with Millicom as a strong no2. The deal could yet stumble (multiple parties, involves a formal privatization, regulation), will take a little while to consummate, leaves question marks over WOM (which filed for protection locally in April), but we think can comfortably create over $1 billion of synergies, and create >$4 per share of value (TIGO US).

EUR 9599.00

August 5, 2024 August 5, 2024 1 EN

New Street Research

TIGO (Buy, TP: $30, +30%) Millicom - Upgrades following Q1s support rapid deleverage. TP to $30 from $24.

Following strong Q1s last week we have pushed our target to $30, from $24. Underlying upgrades are 5-6% at EBITDA and we have trimmed capex further. Partly mitigating factors are 1/ We have cut our expectation for a dividend from Honduras, and 2/ Built in a 50% likelihood of a devaluation in Bolivia, though this doesn’t appear very imminent (we include in our valuation, not in estimates)

EUR 9599.00

May 13, 2024 May 13, 2024 1 EN

Alphabet (GOOGL, Buy, $213 target) Forget Chrome, 3P payments are the heart of the issue

Yesterday the DOJ filed its proposed remedies in the Search antitrust case. The recommended divestiture of Chrome drew most of the headlines. And while potentially very negative for GOOGL (as are all proposed remedies), we don’t believe it is the most impactful to the market for general search services.

EUR 9599.00

21h / 23m 21h / 23m 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

SATS: DBS merger breaks

According to press reports, TPG will call off the merger today. For the merger to proceed, bondholders needed to agree to a debt exchange. Apparently, they have rejected the exchange. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.

EUR 9599.00

November 22, 2024 November 22, 2024 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits

In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.

EUR 9599.00

November 22, 2024 November 22, 2024 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

Millicom (Buy, TP: $21, +18%) Q1 23: Model update: EBITDA miss, Colombian spectrum liabilities...though Capex cuts support EFCF

TIGO (Buy, TP: $34, +29%) Millicom - Q3 24: Solid quarter; raised EFCF guidance

Millicom (Buy, TP: $30, +17%) Multiple M&A’s: Millicom (BUY) in Colombia/Costa Rica – synergies >$1 billion / Q2 24 highlights

TIGO (Buy, TP: $30, +30%) Millicom - Upgrades following Q1s support rapid deleverage. TP to $30 from $24.

Alphabet (GOOGL, Buy, $213 target) Forget Chrome, 3P payments are the heart of the issue

SATS: DBS merger breaks

3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe