New Street Research - MILLICOM (TIGO) New Street: Millicom (Neutral, TP: $44, +10%) Millicom Q2s - Capex hiked, modest buy-back partly softens the blow

Report

New Street Research

Soomit Datta

New Street: Millicom (Neutral, TP: $44, +10%) Millicom Q2s - Capex hiked, modest buy-back partly softens the blow

Millicom reported Q2s this morning: LatAm service revenue beat by 1.8% whilst EBITDA missed by 0.3% (adjusting both for a USD4 million charge). Buried toward the back of the earnings deck was an upgrade to capex of USD100-200m for FY21 (and vs USD1 bn for FY20).

29/07/2021 9 EN

Underlying

MILLICOM

See profile

Provider

New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
Global healthcare thematic research

We provide debt research on:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

See profile

Analysts

Soomit Datta

Other Reports on these Companies

New Street Research

TIGO (Buy, TP: $24, +35%) Millicom - UPGRADE TO BUY: Xavier Niel helping drive rapidly improving FCF profile

We have lifted estimates following better than expected Q4s and given the even stronger EFCF guide driven by Xavier Niel and management’s ambitious cost cutting program.

EUR 9284.00

February 28, 2024 February 28, 2024 1 EN

New Street Research

TIGO (Neutral, TP: $20, +16%) Millicom Q4s: FCF lift again - does Xavier Niel have the Midas touch?

Millicom’s Q4s came in nicely ahead at EBITDA and with the positive surprise of another lift in the EFCF outlook through to the end of 2024. After a negative EFCF print for 2023, this implies a mammoth $550m for FY 24, and well ahead of consensus, driven by some “one off” factors in 2023 falling away, and with all indications this can be considered a floor level looking forward (our inference). If so this points to a sustainable EFCF yield of 19% after today’s share price lift.

EUR 9284.00

February 27, 2024 February 27, 2024 1 EN

New Street Research

LatAm Telcos – 2024 Outlook: Top picks Brazil (TIM and Vivo) and Megacable

After strong stock performance in 2023 we think the Brazilians will continue to perform into 2024 on the back of solid wireless fundamentals: rising prices, revenue/EBITDA > inflation, falling capex/sales – and with IOC (tax) risks in the rear view for now. Shareholder returns are also sector leading whilst valuations are attractive (notably versus quickly falling rates).

EUR 9284.00

January 23, 2024 January 23, 2024 1 EN

Frontier Model Update

This note focuses on changes to the model following 1Q24 results. Earlier today, we published a review of results and comprehensive thoughts following the earnings call. The changes to estimates are minor. Our long-term thesis remains unchanged. Price target is $52.

EUR 9284.00

11h / 51m 11h / 51m 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

We commented earlier on the implications of the delay in the analyst day. In this follow up, we cover: 1) the growth / margin trade-off; 2) fiber broadband ARPU growth; 3) SAC growth; 4) EBITDA growth; 5) fiber penetration; 6) ACP; 7) fiber net adds. We covered what we expect for the strategic review in our quick take on results this morning.

EUR 9284.00

13h / 34m 13h / 34m 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

FYBR quick thought following the call

In this quick note we touch on our thoughts around the delay in the analyst day. We will follow up shortly with further thoughts on operating and financial trends.

EUR 9284.00

20h / 23m 20h / 23m 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

New Street: Millicom (Neutral, TP: $44, +10%) Millicom Q2s - Capex hiked, modest buy-back partly softens the blow

TIGO (Buy, TP: $24, +35%) Millicom - UPGRADE TO BUY: Xavier Niel helping drive rapidly improving FCF profile

TIGO (Neutral, TP: $20, +16%) Millicom Q4s: FCF lift again - does Xavier Niel have the Midas touch?

LatAm Telcos – 2024 Outlook: Top picks Brazil (TIM and Vivo) and Megacable

Frontier Model Update

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

FYBR quick thought following the call

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe