2020 EPS Growth Now Near-Certainty
Avexis brings a rare drug that almost offers a cure for SMA. This brings a rare sales profile that will lead to $2bn of sales in its first full year, conveniently coinciding with the Gilenia & Afinitor patent expiries. We estimate Avexis is 7% accretive in 2020 and that consensus is yet to factor it in. We now forecast 2020 EPS to grow 11% and show Novartis is trading on a 10% discount to the sector. We believe this deal trans-forms the mid-term outlook and should ease investor concerns around a Gilenia driven halt in growth.Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.
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