Novartis - 15% Above Consensus (HOLD, TP CHF 110)
New analysis on Scemblix, the IgAN franchise & Zolgensma means we upgrade our 2028 EPS by 13% & are 15% above cons. We show Scemblix could hit $5bn at peak & following analysis of the IgAN franchise, we forecast $5bn sales in 2028 ($2.7bn above cons). Whilst 2025 EPS needs to fall by 2-3% to account for FX (and possibly Part D reform), we see significant potential for upgrades as the year progresses and Scemblix, Kisqali, Kesimpta & Cosentyx in HS continue to outperform. We see further upside from higher Medicare volumes and OAV-101, pelacarsen & ianalumab P3 readouts all due in H125.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.
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