Novartis - 2023: A Big Year for Novartis (BUY, TP CHF 100 [97], 26 pgs)
Our new work on Sandoz’ biosimilar Humira and iptacopan leads us to increase our Sandoz valuation by 28%, our 2027 Pharma EBIT by 12% and conclude standalone Sandoz could be materially more attractive than investors are expecting. We show that Hyrimoz 2024 sales could be $650m & help Sandoz EBIT grow 21% next year. This outlook could see Sandoz viewed very differently, particularly with 15 further biosimilars in development and rapidly declining US exposure. Our deep-dive on iptacopan has led us to be >$2bn above consensus in 2027 and believe that the IgAN indication could be >$3bn with data due in H2, alongside NATALEE & the Sandoz spin. 2023 looks to be a promising year for Novartis. PT up to CHF100.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
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