New Street Research - Novartis AG (NOVN) Novartis - Role Reversal (HOLD, TP CHF85 [83], 14 pgs)

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New Street Research

Dominic Rose ...

Naresh Chouhan

EUR 4312.50 For Business Accounts Only

Novartis - Role Reversal (HOLD, TP CHF85 [83], 14 pgs)

Perversely, as investors worry about the impact of separating a low multiple business we show that there has been a role reversal in the Novartis group. We now forecast faster growth in Sandoz than in Pharma 2021-26. We estimate that 20% of 2021 group sales will be lost to generic competition by 2026. Whilst we still forecast 2% CAGR group sales growth over this period, which is a testament to NOVN’s innovation, group EPS grows just 3%. Based on our SOTP, we estimate a Sandoz separation has negligible impact on the group valuation. We upgrade our Sandoz forecasts which drives our PT upgrade.
For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )

27/10/2021 14 EN

Underlying

Novartis AG

Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.

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CH0012005267 Six Swiss Exchange Switzerland

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Analysts

Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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