EUR 4351.14 For Business Accounts Only

The Wave Machine

Novartis has created waves of innovation that will
help it to grow to 2022. We show that NIBR is a
competitive advantage having delivered $18bn of
peak sales. As a result, we believe Novartis warrants
a premium much like Roche enjoyed thanks to
Genentech. We are $2bn higher than consensus for
the 2nd wave of products driving our 2022 EPS 10%
higher than consensus. PT now SFr.100 (SFr.90).

Wave after Wave of Innovation - Novartis’ prolific R&D
engine powered by NIBR has delivered waves of innovation
with the first wave already marketed. The 2nd wave is close
behind with 5 assets which have all had successful P3 trials.
The 3rd wave will have pivotal data within the next 24mths.

1st Wave Expectations Upgraded - Despite the perception of
consistent downgrades driven by Entresto, the 1st wave of
products have actually had 2021 sales expectations
upgraded. 2018 EPS forecasts have also been upgraded.

2nd Wave Expectations Too Low – We believe the market has
underestimated the upcoming launches. Our 2022 sales are
$2bn higher than consensus for the 2nd wave of products.

Robust EPS Growth Through 2019/20 – Our Contribution
Analysis shows at a product-by-product level that Pharma
can grow through the Gilenia and Afinitor Patent cliffs.