TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +32%) VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +26%) AMX (Buy, TP: $22, +32%) TIM Brasil (Buy) / Brazil Q2 wrap - Strong EBITDAaL beat at TIM / Market round up / Nubank MVNO latest Fintech-Telco offer
TIM Q2s: As with Claro and Vivo, TIM delivered a robust set of Q2 results. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~1% though at EBITDAaL TIM outperformed with a +5% beat, supported by stable Leases compared to Q1. Service revenue maintained consistent growth in-line with previous quarters (~7% y/y) from faster postpaid, and maintained negative prepaid. H1 EBITDA (and revenue) continued to trend slightly above the FY24 guidance. Despite management’s confidence in achieving targets for the year, they have refrained from raising the guidance, anticipating slower growth in H2 (attributed tougher comps and a smaller postpaid price increase compared to FY23). The stock remains attractive on an 10.5% EFCF yield.
Brazil Q2 wrap including latest Fintech-Telco offer: All three operators delivered a strong performance in Brazil. Service revenue improved across the board, with Vivo leading the way (TIM closely followed). Some overhang remains on fixed broadband consolidation (more so Vivo than TIM) whilst Nubank’s MVNO launch has led to some concerns in the market which we briefly explore.