ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 04/24/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 24/04/2025

Orange (Buy, TP: €15.4, +24%) Q1 25: Solid numbers, guidance reiterated

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; the important French SR trends are slightly weaker (but ahead of consensus expectations), but all guidance for Group and divisions (including France) has been reiterated.

T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call

What’s new: in this note we cover the case for T-Mobile buying a cable asset and what we learned about the odds of this from the call, new insights into T-Mobile’s fiber strategy, what it means for Cable and Fiber assets, further thoughts on the slowdown in growth in the broadband market, important insights into what might be driving the strength in the mobile market, and how T-Mobile will approach tariffs. We will publish a separate comprehensive review of results and model update shortly.

Comcast Post-1Q25 Model Update

What’s new: In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are higher broadband losses and lower EBITDA in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses as well as lower EBITDA. No change to thesis. Price target is $38 (+15%).

CMCSA: Quick thoughts following the call 1Q25

What’s new: in this note we cover the source of the pressure Comcast is seeing on broadband growth (market vs competition), we cover the potential causes of slower market growth, we cover the causes of competitive pressures and the impact of recent pricing changes, and we touch on implications for ARPU and EBITDA growth.