Roche - Downgrade to SELL - ( TP CHF280 [300], 23 pgs)
We now forecast just 2% EPS growth in 2022 & 4% CAGR EPS growth 2021-26 which includes Dx sales that are CHF4bn above cons following detailed analysis of the division. A worsening biosimilar impact could drive a 5% downgrade to cons. 2022 EBIT, on our numbers. We are CHF7bn lower than consensus on 2025 Pharma sales (for context, over the last 9mths, cons. 2024 group sales have fallen by ~SFr.7bn). We are 10% below cons. on 2025 EPS despite our Dx upgrade. Roche’s recent re-rating vs the sector is unjustified in our view and we cut our PT to CHF280 (a 7% 2022 sector discount).For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
Roche Holding is a healthcare company. Co. operates in two Divisions, Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division is comprised of two business segments Roche Pharmaceuticals and Chugai. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division provides therapies including Cotellic, in combination with Zelboraf for advanced melanoma, and Alecensa for a specific type of lung cancer. Co.'s diagnostics division consists of four business areas: Diabetes Care, Molecular Diagnostics, Professional Diagnostics and Tissue Diagnostics. Co.'s diagnostics division provides in vitro diagnostic tests, used by healthcare providers to screen, diagnose and monitor therapies.
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