Mounting Downside Risks
As the market starts to look for signs of hope at Roche from CT-388 & cost savings, we highlight several risks to in-market drugs and show that CT-388 will have zero EPS impact during the investment horizon to 2029. We downgrade our Alecensa 2028 sales by CHF1.2bn due to the recent Pfizer competitor data. We show that Vabysmo is likely to facing growing risks to growth from Eylea HD and Eylea biosimilars. We also show that Hemlibra forecasts face downside risk & Tecentriq could go into decline. We model just 3% CAGR EPS growth to 2029, when we are 14% below cons. EPS. Over the last 36mths, Roche’s 2024 EPS forecasts have fallen by 25%. Sanofi looks significantly better value here. SELL. PT CHF200.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ).
Roche Holding is a healthcare company. Co. operates in two Divisions, Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division is comprised of two business segments Roche Pharmaceuticals and Chugai. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division provides therapies including Cotellic, in combination with Zelboraf for advanced melanoma, and Alecensa for a specific type of lung cancer. Co.'s diagnostics division consists of four business areas: Diabetes Care, Molecular Diagnostics, Professional Diagnostics and Tissue Diagnostics. Co.'s diagnostics division provides in vitro diagnostic tests, used by healthcare providers to screen, diagnose and monitor therapies.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
- US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
- Global Emerging Market Telecoms
- Japan Telecoms
- Asian Internet
- Pan European Healthcare
- Global healthcare thematic research
We provide debt research on:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.