Roche - Upgrade to BUY (TP CHF360 [350], 19 pgs)
With the A,H&R biosimilar impact now manageable, our upgraded Vabysmo and Polivy sales drive 6% underlying top-line growth in 2023 (ex-COVID sales). We increase our 2026 EPS forecast by 13% on the back of higher Vabysmo, Polivy & HER2 Franchise sales. We forecast 4% CAGR EPS growth 2022-27 despite including zero for gantenerumab. In addition to a growth recovery, our analysis shows Roche is also the most defensive EU Pharma name with respect to inflationary pressures from wages & pricing power across its portfolio. We view Roche as attractive despite Gant’ and believe the shares will perform on a 12-mth view irrespective of the readout.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ).
Roche Holding is a healthcare company. Co. operates in two Divisions, Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division is comprised of two business segments Roche Pharmaceuticals and Chugai. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division provides therapies including Cotellic, in combination with Zelboraf for advanced melanoma, and Alecensa for a specific type of lung cancer. Co.'s diagnostics division consists of four business areas: Diabetes Care, Molecular Diagnostics, Professional Diagnostics and Tissue Diagnostics. Co.'s diagnostics division provides in vitro diagnostic tests, used by healthcare providers to screen, diagnose and monitor therapies.
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