A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads

In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer, Relx, Swisscom and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. As spread curves trade rather flat, we prefer notes in the belly of the curves. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.

Adj. EBITDA 1% above, strong FCF

Alphabet (GOOGL, Buy, $213 target) Forget Chrome, 3P payments are the heart of the issue

Yesterday the DOJ filed its proposed remedies in the Search antitrust case. The recommended divestiture of Chrome drew most of the headlines. And while potentially very negative for GOOGL (as are all proposed remedies), we don’t believe it is the most impactful to the market for general search services.

SATS: DBS merger breaks

According to press reports, TPG will call off the merger today. For the merger to proceed, bondholders needed to agree to a debt exchange. Apparently, they have rejected the exchange. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.

3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits

In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.