Zero Growth
We forecast no sales or EPS growth over the next 5yrs.The Roche outlook can be broken down into 6
franchises; CD20, HER2 and Avastin & the new assets
(Tecentriq, Ocrevus & Hemlibra). We conduct deep
dives on each franchise and show that for Roche to
beat our forecasts, sales from these franchises must
be materially higher than our already optimistic
forecasts. We also show that there is limited margin
expansion potential. Hence, investors must bet that
revenues are higher than expected. We downgrade to
HOLD & believe there is d/side risk. PT CHF220.
Roche Holding is a healthcare company. Co. operates in two Divisions, Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division is comprised of two business segments Roche Pharmaceuticals and Chugai. Co.'s pharmaceuticals division provides therapies including Cotellic, in combination with Zelboraf for advanced melanoma, and Alecensa for a specific type of lung cancer. Co.'s diagnostics division consists of four business areas: Diabetes Care, Molecular Diagnostics, Professional Diagnostics and Tissue Diagnostics. Co.'s diagnostics division provides in vitro diagnostic tests, used by healthcare providers to screen, diagnose and monitor therapies.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
- US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
- Global Emerging Market Telecoms
- Japan Telecoms
- Asian Internet
- Pan European Healthcare
- Global healthcare thematic research
We provide debt research on:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
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