ODDO : The strategic dilemma revisited: Merger/buyout on the horizon?
We see the odds of Acciona and Acciona Energía becoming one rising, with a share-based deal the most plausible path - limiting balance sheet strain but slightly diluting the Entrecanales family. A cash buyout is feasible, yet less attractive given leverage, EPS dilution and higher financing costs. Either option could increase mid-term financing costs and erode the renewables pure-play angle. With both stocks trading close to our target prices and little chance of a meaningful premium, we maintain a Neutral stance with a TP of € 25.9 for Acciona Energía (vs € 25.2) and € 183 for Acciona (vs € 142) - noting that in the absence of further corporate actions, Acciona could revert to trading with a holding-company discount. Against this, we could see merit in a pair trade to capture exposure to the ‘stub’: long Acciona Energía and Nordex (Outperform; TP € 25), short Acciona.Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
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