Orano : Update on the financial situation and strategic projects

After a lengthy period of debt reduction that has resulted in a sturdy financial structure (leverage of 0.4x at end-2025), Orano now needs to pursue a more robust investment policy which will temporarily weigh on credit metrics, though we do not expect this to jeopardise its 'BBB' rating.
The favourable environment for the nuclear sector help maintain positive operating momentum, but this will not be sufficient to "offset" the increase in capex projected for 2026 and 2027 (around € 1.7bn per year according to our projection, vs. € 1.3bn in 2025 and € 1bn in 2024).
At a time when the market is prone to high volatility (arising from the implications of Trump's actions in the Middle East), Orano still boasts an attractive profile, protected by the unique nature of its operations, buoyant conditions in the nuclear market and the fact that the French state is its top investor with a 90.33% stake, which provides valuable support (€ 300m capital increase completed in October 2024, which it fully subscribed in order to fund part of the expansion programmes).
These factors could justify a preference for Orano bonds as a whole, but yields are slightly less attractive on the longer portion of the curve. We therefore reiterate our Neutral (Hold) recommendation on the 2028 and 2031 notes. The 2027 issue is the most attractive and we continue to be buyers.