The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Türkiye in the red, again

EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.

WOOD Daily: PL Banks; ACP PW; INPST NA; KTY PW; HSBK LI; TITC GA; GPP PW; MBK PW; SPL PW; SPL PW; BFT PW; CIMSA TI; RICHT HB; KSPI US

HEADLINES: • Polish banks: pricing and believing (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Asseco Poland: 4Q24 review – net profit up 9% yoy, 9% above the consensus POSITIVE • InPost: 4Q24 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA growth guidance in the mid-20%s, but a slow start to the year POSITIVE • Kety: solid full 4Q24 results, with EBITDA 12% above preliminaries POSITIVE • Halyk Bank: 4Q24 review and 2025E guidance highlights • Titan Cement: 4Q24 results and conference call takeaways • Grupa Pracuj: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings...

Polish Banks: pricing and believing (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy)

The Polish banks have rallied 35% ytd, but the median total return for the LTM has arrived at 18%+ for the Polish banks under our coverage. We feel that the market is currently in a similar place to exactly a year ago. The banks have performed well since the end of last year, but valuations remain attractive, with our 2025-26E median P/Es of 9.0-8.2x, at discounts to the long-term valuation levels and with solid single-digit dividend yields in 1H25E. Our upgraded forecasts imply a 10% median EPS improvement and, should we be right, the 2025-26E consensus estimates are still 7-8% too low on the...

Oddo’s 2 Weeks Ahead_Friday 04 April 2025

13 probabilities of recession in the US… Take your pick

Turning the announcement of a new system of trade tariffs into a media extravaganza, a subject that on the face of it seems dry and boring, takes a genius of communication to pull off. Donald Trump has done it. On 2 April, flanked by his entire government and in front of the TV cameras, he announced his plan to restore ‘fair and reciprocal’ trade and ‘liberate’ America. Apart from his diehard supporters, everyone thinks that this plan is an economic disaster and that it risks discouraging trade with the United States, causing prices to soar and weighing on consumer morale and spending. Did you...

Oddo’s 2 Weeks Ahead_Vendredi 04 Avril 2025