CEZ : Back to fundamentals after a politically motivated price rally
We downgrade CEZ to Underperform (vs. Neutral) as we believe that the 30% rise in the share price YTD is largely due to speculation about a possible re-nationalisation of the company. In our view, the current valuation of CEZ is not justified given the expected EPS decline of 11.5% in 2024-28e CAGR, unattractive dividends (our DPS of CZK 45 for 2025e implies a DY of <4%) and high capex needs of CZK 425bn in 2025-2030e (c. 65% of EBITDA) for phasing out coal-based generation, investing in RES and expanding the electricity and gas distribution. Our new target price of CZK 915 implies a downside potential of >25%.CEZ Group is a dynamic, integrated electricity conglomerate based in the Czech Republic and with operations in a number of countries of Central and Southeastern Europe and Turkey. Co. is an international group consisting of nearly 120 companies, Czech and foreign. Co.'s primary activities involve the production and transmission of electricity through nuclear, coal-fired and hydro power stations; production and distribution of heat and processing of secondary products generated during the production of electricity and heat as well as coal mining. Co. has operating companies in Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany, Hungary, Albania, Turkey, Serbia, and Slovakia.
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
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