Groupama : Solid credit quality, already well-paying. We are fine-tuning our recommendations.

Groupama delivered a record performance in 2024, driven by lower claims and especially its sales momentum as well as price hikes and the effects of the selective policy pursued over the past two years. This discipline, coupled with a stronger commercial start to the year, should ensure continued solid profitability in 2025, barring any major claims experience further out. Confident that the group can withstand and offset the impact of adverse events, thanks to its diverse business lines, we reiterate our Stable credit opinion.
That said, political and economic uncertainties are generating significant volatility, which could persist in the medium term. Given the sensitivity of RT1 instruments, we recommend capitalising on spread tightening these past few days to reduce positions in PNC34 notes. We reiterate our Buy recommendation on Tier 3 2028 notes and our Neutral recommendation on Tier 2 notes.