Austrian Post : Core business headwinds warrant more cautious stance
We lower our target price on Austrian Post to € 30 from € 31 and downgrade the stock from Neutral to Underperform. Our more cautious stance reflects the view that the sharper-than-expected structural decline in Austrian mail volumes is likely to drive a sustained erosion of segment earnings. At the same time, increasing competitive intensity in international parcel markets — particularly across CEE/SEE — is expected to remain a meaningful headwind to both profitability and volume growth. Against this backdrop, we view the recent share price appreciation, from € 30 at the end of 2025 to above € 36 currently, as unwarranted given the persistent structural pressures affecting the company’s core businesses.Austrian Post is a logistics and postal services provider in Austria. Its main business activities include the transport and delivery of letters, direct mail items, print media and parcels. Co.'s branch network offers postal, banking and telecommunications products and services to its customers throughout Austria. Co. is also represented by subsidiaries in 12 European markets, particularly in the parcel and logistics segment as well as in unaddressed direct mail items.
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
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