The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Poland outperforms; Türkiye declines

EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.

WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; ETE GA; PBK RO; 4IG HB; SFG RO; DUNAHOUS HB; RICHT HB; DIGI RO; CIMSA TI; FROTO TI; TOASO TI; SIPCHEM AB; 11B PW

HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24 February-2 March) • National Bank of Greece: 4Q24 results and 2025-27E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Patria Bank: 4Q24 bottom-line miss due mostly to lower non-interest income NEGATIVE • 4iG: 4Q24 results review – 22% yoy reported EBITDA increase, in line with our estimate; bottom-line miss, on D&A hike NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected; webcast takeaways NEGATIVE • Duna House: 4Q24 – FY results in line, lower DPS, but possible upside from M&A • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: key t...

WOOD Flash – Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected; webcast takeaways

In line with our expectations, Sphera has reported a relatively soft set of results for 4Q24, due to: i) the tough base of the very strong 4Q23; ii) continuing wage pressure; and iii) higher taxation. While the sales growth decelerated to 3% yoy (in line with our expectations), labour costs expanded by 10% yoy, driving EBITDA erosion of 10% yoy, to RON 48m, 2% above our forecast. On the bottom line, Sphera delivered a 30% yoy drop, 2% above our expectations.

ODDO : Worst-case scenario avoided, slowdown in growth still likely, but valuations are largely adjusted, VAT upgrade

ODDO : Scenario du pire évité, quand même un probable ralentissement de la croissance, mais les valorisations sont bien ajustées, upgrade de VAT

Verallia : Still in a recovery phase