EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but trading update disappoints NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: weak 4Q23 results, but bullish FY24E guidance NEGATIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: proposes RON 0.06 DPS (11.8% dividend yield) POSITIVE • PKO BP: new acting CEO and two new board members appointed; more to come; but CRO Mazur stays • CEZ: starts divestment of Polis...
Sphera Group has published its FY24 budget, which is, generally, above our expectations. The company expects EBITDA and earnings growth of 28% yoy and 20% yoy, respectively. Effectively, Sphera’ budget come 22% and 13% ahead of our forecasts, respectively. On the budget numbers, Sphera is trading at a 2024E P/E of 11.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.8x, 9% below and 13% above AmRest. We expect a positive market reaction.
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
Yesterday (29 February), Sphera reported its historically-best quarterly sales, EBITDA and earnings for 4Q23. As the low base of the pandemic effect is over, the top-line growth decelerated to 7% yoy, 3% below our expectations. However, the company managed to keep the cost growth at bay, driving adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings growth of 20% and 29%, 8% and 45% above our expectations. Effectively, Sphera has missed its FY23 EBITDA guidance by only 9%. No FY24E guidance has been published, a...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q23 results – net income better than expected POSITIVE • Shoper: 2024E management guidance implies EBITDA range broadly in line with our forecast NEUTRAL • Bank Pekao: Pekao Bank Hipoteczny on FX mortgage saga costs due in 4Q23E NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 9% yoy EBITDA expansion expected in 4Q23E (due on 29 February) • Short News (PKN, WPS, FP)
A director at Sphera Franchise Group bought 363,823 shares at 25.000RON and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: fuelled by non-fuel (stays BUY) • Allegro: 3Q23 results a notch above expectations; guidance for a strong 4Q23E in Poland POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: better-than-expected 3Q23, solid 2023-24E outlook but also higher capex guidance POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: qoq margin expansion in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Krka: 3Q results normalising, in line with our FY23E outlook NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 3Q23 numbers fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photon...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • PZU: 2Q23 results stronger than expected, dividend yield due next week POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q23 below our forecasts, in line with consensus; CDR satisfied with PL pre-orders NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 10% yoy, 5% above the market consensus POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 2Q23 - gross profit of EUR 16m, on 28% GPM, FY guidance reiterated • Sphera Group: minor miss in 2Q23 due to high base of post COVID-19 recovery NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: 1...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
We reinitiate coverage of Sphera Group (Sphera) with a BUY rating and a 12M price target (PT) of RON 26.9/share. Sphera is the largest restaurant chain in Romania, with a presence in Moldova and Italy, with 177 restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell banners. On its way to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic impact, we expect 2022-25E sales and EBITDA CAGRs of 12% and 17%, respectively, both close to the 10/14% we forecast for AmRest. At the same time, we find Sphera virtually debt fr...
We upgrade Sphera Franchise Group from HOLD to BUY even if we revise downwards our DCF-derived 12-month cum-dividend TP to RON 17.1 per share (vs. the previous 12-month cum-dividend TP of RON 18.6). In the light of strong Q3 results and our confidence in the Spheras pricing power, we revise upwards our short/medium-term revenues projections (by 8-9% vs our previous model). At the same time, we estimate lower new net openings and a lower adj EBITDA margin as we expect a more challenging macroecon...
FTSE Index December review - No changes of index constituents in our Coverage Universe AT: Flughafen Wien - Next step in the approval process for IFM offer (neutral) AT: Utilities - Government to cap only 90% of revenues above EUR 140/180 per MWh (positive) PL: PKN - Q3 EBITDA to be increased by PLN 5.9 bn one-off gains from the acquisition of Grupa Lotos (neutral) RO: Sphera Franchise Group - Dividend proposal of RON 0.5155 per share, DY 3.7% (negative)
RO: Banca Transilvania - Q3 22 bottom line down by 2% qoq to RON 631 mn due to higher provisions (neutral) RO: Electrica - Romanian government decided that the energy market will be regulated until March 2025 (neutral) RO: Sphera Franchise Group - Q3 22 bottom line of RON 23.9 mn, up 14% yoy, after a 23% surge in revenues (positive) RO: Transgaz - Q3 22 bottom line in black after an increase of 87% yoy for intern transport revenues (positive)
AT: Bawag Group - Supreme Court rules against Bawag in the swap contract court case with City of Linz/ EUR 254 mn write-off has no impact on regulatory capital (neutral) AT: Kapsch TrafficCom - Kapsch TrafficCom agreed to sell Spanish public transport subsidiary (neutral) AT: PORR - Initial FY 22 output guidance below RBIe but might be conservative, earnings increase flagged (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - CEO Elisabeth Stadler will not renew her mandate (neutral) RO: Sphera Fra...
AT: Oil&Gas - Austria releases further oil reserves (neutral) AT: OMV - Gas deliveries to OMV 70% below order levels, following start of scheduled Nord Stream maintenance (neutral) RO: Medlife - Strategic partnership for healthcare with NN (positive) RO: Sphera Franchise Group - Sphera has successfully closed the negotiations regarding Taco Bell's 2022 development plan (neutral)
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